There was a post earlier on HN where they trained a probe which could give a realistic confidence score on an LLM, they claim with 81% accuracy. They used it to interrupt and switch to a smarter model if a dumber one had low confidence: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49010782
I agree with the author if we are trying to use this as some sort of absolute scale of confidence. It only develops meaning when we control for many other variables. Looking at confidence scores across two different models or prompts is probably not a good idea.
There was a post earlier on HN where they trained a probe which could give a realistic confidence score on an LLM, they claim with 81% accuracy. They used it to interrupt and switch to a smarter model if a dumber one had low confidence: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49010782
I agree with the author if we are trying to use this as some sort of absolute scale of confidence. It only develops meaning when we control for many other variables. Looking at confidence scores across two different models or prompts is probably not a good idea.