My biggest concern for this year is that there are clearly a non insignificant % of institutional investors (and also increased participation from retail investors) primed to bail out of the market at any hint of “bad” news which can compound issues when they happen. The volatility this year seems likely to be wild.
The concentration numbers are what make this structural imo and not at all cyclical. Top 10 were 45% of the S&P 500 by end of 2025, CAPE is at the 96th percentile since 1980, and AQR's latest capital market assumptions project just 3.9% real returns for US equities. I repositioned toward European equities and fixed income back in December. The Germany fiscal pivot alone is EUR 1T+ in infrastructure commitment: https://philippdubach.com/posts/how-ai-is-shaping-my-investm...
Despite the headline this is not bankers moving to London but people rebalancing assets to non-US stocks. Which have been doing very well recently especially given the weakness in the dollar.
My biggest concern for this year is that there are clearly a non insignificant % of institutional investors (and also increased participation from retail investors) primed to bail out of the market at any hint of “bad” news which can compound issues when they happen. The volatility this year seems likely to be wild.
The concentration numbers are what make this structural imo and not at all cyclical. Top 10 were 45% of the S&P 500 by end of 2025, CAPE is at the 96th percentile since 1980, and AQR's latest capital market assumptions project just 3.9% real returns for US equities. I repositioned toward European equities and fixed income back in December. The Germany fiscal pivot alone is EUR 1T+ in infrastructure commitment: https://philippdubach.com/posts/how-ai-is-shaping-my-investm...
Despite the headline this is not bankers moving to London but people rebalancing assets to non-US stocks. Which have been doing very well recently especially given the weakness in the dollar.